Brer Donkey should be careful what he wishes for

What could possibly go wrong?
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A political tale:

"I've got you this time, Brer Elephant," said Brer Donkey, jumping up and shaking off the dust. "You've outsmarted me for the very last time. Now I wonder what I should do with you?"

Brer Elephant’s eyes got very large. “Oh please Brer Donkey, whatever you do, please don't vote for Sarah Palin in the primaries.”

“Maybe I should raise your taxes,” mused Brer Donkey. “No, with the House under your control, I probably can't do it. Maybe I'll create death panels by executive order instead.”

“Tax me! Euthanize me! Do whatever you please,” said Brer Elephant. “Only please, Brer Donkey, please don't vote for Sarah Palin in the primaries.”

“If I'm going to euthanize you, I'll have to wait for ObamaCare to go into effect,” said Brer Donkey. “And I don't have time for that. But I know that illegal aliens pouring across the borders will drive you right out of your mind, so maybe I'll declare amnesty for them instead.”

“Tax me! Euthanize me! Let the invaders in. Do whatever you please,” said Brer Elephant. “Only please, Brer Donkey, please don't vote for Sarah Palin in the primaries.”

“Vote for Sarah Palin in the primaries, eh?” said Brer Donkey. “What a wonderful idea! You'll be torn into little pieces!”

h/t: Free Republic, concept by FReeper USFriendInVictoria

- JP

Walshe: Another Strong Primary Night for Palin

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Shushannah Walshe at The Daily Beast on Sarah Palin's excellent primary night:

Sarah Palin had another successful primary night on Tuesday with conservative activist Christine O’Donnell’s stunning victory in Delaware. The surprise win, much like Palin endorsee Joe Miller’s big victory over incumbent Lisa Murkowski in Alaska’s Senate GOP primary last month, has political observers reeling. With 53 percent of the vote, O’Donnell beat Mike Castle, a popular 20-year veteran of the small state’s only House seat and a two-term governor.

After initially meeting with O’Donnell at the Restoring Honor rally with Glenn Beck on Aug. 28, Palin endorsed her last week. In backing the insurgent candidate, the former governor joined the Tea Party Express, which, as in Alaska, had been raising money and canvassing for O’Donnell for weeks. Palin also recorded a last-minute robo-call expressing her support for her newest “Mama Grizzly,” her nickname for the female candidates she backed.

Palin “got behind us war-weary folks, and gave us a boost of encouragement when we needed it,” O’Donnell said. “And she was a vote against the politics of personal destruction.”

Until Palin’s endorsement, O’Donnell was thought not to stand a chance against Castle, but a poll released Sunday by Public Policy Polling sounded the warning alarm when it had O’Donnell up three points.

In front of screaming supporters, O’Donnell thanked Palin in her speech Tuesday night.

“Thank you, Gov. Palin, for your endorsement. Because she got behind us war-weary folks, and gave us a boost of encouragement when we needed it,” O’Donnell said. “And she was a vote against the politics of personal destruction.”

O’Donnell might have been Palin’s biggest win, but it wasn’t her only one: former FBI agent and combat veteran Michael Grimm sailed to victory in the NY-13 GOP primary for the House seat representing Staten Island and part of Brooklyn. In Wisconsin, Sean Duffy, former district attorney and star of MTV’s The Real World, beat his challenger in his primary in that state’s 7th Congressional District. And in the NY-2 House race, businessman John Gomez was uncontested and did not face a GOP primary.

There was at least one loss for Palin: In Maryland, Brian Murphy lost his primary against former Gov. Robert Ehrlich Jr...

You can read the rest here.

- JP

Miami Herald: Sarah Palin adds kingmaker to her résumé

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Here are some excerpts from an analysis by the Miami Herald's Alex Leary of Gov. Palin's perfect Tuesday, in which five candidates she endorsed won their primary races:

Two years removed from her breakout as John McCain's running mate, Palin figured heavily Thursday in her home state of Alaska, where she backed a little-known candidate for U.S. Senate now on the cusp of a major upset.

In Florida earlier this week, Palin, 46, played a role in Pam Bondi's victory in the three-way GOP primary for attorney general, offering a surprise endorsement and recording a call to voters.

"She has an electrifying effect on the Republican base," Bondi said Thursday as she prepared to write Palin a thank you e-mail.

[...]

This week has been big for Palin. She recorded wins in Florida (in addition to Bondi, she endorsed congressional candidate Allen West of Plantation), Arizona (McCain) and, potentially, Alaska.

[...]

"Sarah Palin reclaims her Midas touch," read the crawler on CNN.

"She's clearly collected a lot of IOUs," said national Republican pollster Whit Ayres. "The real question is what she wants to do with them."

[...]

"Mrs. Palin is using what she has at the moment," said Janis Edwards, a University of Alabama communications professor who has written about Palin in the context of gender politics.

"What makes it especially interesting is the attention she's drawing to women candidates," Edwards said of Palin's "mama grizzlies."

"Until now most of the attention on women in politics has derived from a more liberal outlook," Edwards said. "Sarah Palin is appropriating the liberal feminism to further conservative interests."

Read the full, unedited report here.

h/t: roy y

- JP

It's primary day in Washington State and Wyoming

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Voters are going to the polls today in Washington and Wyoming.

In the Cowboy State, a Casper Star-Tribune survey conducted three weeks ago showed Rita Meyer, who has been endorsed by Sarah Palin, with a narrow lead over her nearest challenger in the crowded GOP gubernatorial primary:

Meyer, the current state auditor, and Mead, a former U.S. attorney, polled 27 percent and 24 percent, respectively, among likely Republican voters. Meyer also led all seven Republican candidates in name recognition (91 percent) and favorability rating (50 percent).

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate in Washington State, the conventional wisdom says Dino Rossi will survive to challenge Sen. Patty Murray in November. But 2010 is anything but a conventional election year:

Assuming they do both advance, polls seem to show them as very close among likely voter preference. While the likeliest scenario is that the two most recognizable names in the race do advance, in this Tea Party year, anything is possible on the Republican side. While it is easy to discount Paul Akers and Clint Didier, the strong anti-incumbent, and anti-establishment passion among conservative voters could really hurt Rossi. Dino Rossi, among the Republicans, is the establishment figure, despite never having won a state-wide race (or at least making his one win stick…). Add to that the fact that Rossi is an economic conservative, with a more liberal take on the abortion issue, and Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Clint Didier, and we have an interesting mixture that could bite Rossi.

- JP

Sarah Palin congratulates Ken Buck

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Gov. Palin commented late last night on Tuesday's primary election results via Twitter:

"Sounds like GA gov race still toss-up. Primary competition's great, it breeds success;good for the party,the cause,certainly the electorate"

"Congratulations Ken Buck, CO GOP Sen race winner. Jane Norton announces she endorses him fully, encourages all to do the same. That's classy"

- JP

Sarah Palin: What we know about November

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The Washington Post recently asked several former politicians and political experts, including Sarah Palin, what Tuesday's primary results show about the midterm elections. This is Gov. Palin's answer:

The recent primaries make clear that Washington's status quo is turning us off because the politicos are turning us into a country that would ignore its charters of liberty. Americans who understand that deficits and enormous, immoral, unsustainable federal debt steal liberty and opportunity are saying, "Enough is enough. You who have not fought for the people and against Big Government -- you're fired."

The criteria for supporting constitutional, Reaganesque conservative politicians are pretty simple: Do they know how to live within their means, and do they realize it's a sacred trust to be spending other people's money? How do they stack up against an incumbent who supported government control of one-sixth of our economy via Obamacare? Did the incumbent pit him or herself against state officials who warned against accepting Obama's debt-ridden, strings-attached stimulus package? Did he or she disrespect the 10th Amendment and push unfunded mandates on local governments? Do they disrespect America's families by putting us in harm's way, economically and militarily, because of skewed priorities?

If the politicians fit that bill, then they're part of the problem, and so we will hire people who know the solution. That's the message, and our voice will be heard loud and clear at the ballot box in November.

- JP

Sarah Palin sounds off on Fox & Friends Saturday

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Segment 1: Sarah Palin sounds off on drilling and the Gulf oil crisis:



A transcript of the first segment of the interview is here.

Segment 2: Gov. Palin on Tuesday's election and the lack of trust in government:



- JP

Pat Buchanan: What's Mama Grizzly Up To?

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In his most recent Townhall.com column paleopundit Pat Buchanan says Sarah Palin's endorsements show that she has her eye on the White House:

Though the media have painted Palin as a ditz, no politician in memory has conducted a more brilliant pre-presidential campaign, if that is what she is about, than the lady who calls herself "the Mama Grizzly."

[...]

The endorsement of Branstad suggests Palin, a politician of principle, has a pragmatic streak. She acts not only out of instinct but cold calculation. How else to explain the Branstad endorsement over a social conservative than a decision to befriend a future GOP governor in the first battleground state of 2012?

Other interventions this cycle reveal Palin to be far more savvy than the caricature drawn by the left.

Gov. Rick Perry of Texas, a colleague of Palin's in the GOP Governor's Association, was facing an uphill battle against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, who had the backing of Dick Cheney -- Mr. National Security and the most visible national Republican of 2009.

Cheney went to Texas for Hutchison. Palin went in for Perry, who had scrambled to the Tea Party right, even raising the specter of secession. Perry won in a walk. Palin 1, Cheney 0.

Perry will lead the second-largest bloc of delegates to the GOP convention in Tampa, Fla. The largest will come from California, where Carly Fiorina -- another one of Palin's mama grizzlies -- won the GOP Senate nod on Tuesday. Palin had endorsed her over the more conservative Chuck DeVore.

In Kentucky, where the establishment backed Mitch McConnell's handpicked successor to Sen. Jim Bunning, Trey Grayson, and Cheney went in for Grayson, Palin endorsed Rand Paul, son of Ron Paul, who has a loyal libertarian following.

With Palin and Tea Party backing, Rand won. The Pauls, too, owe a debt to Sarah. Palin 2, Cheney 0.

[...]

Looking over Palin's endorsements -- McCain over J.D., Fiorina over DeVore, Branstad over Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts -- the lady is not running for Mrs. Conservative. The one explanation that makes the most sense of all the seeming inconsistencies in endorsements is that Mama Grizzly is thinking about moving the Wasilla brood into the big house.

Buchanan's broken sundial is only right twice a day, but this is one of those times. If he weren't such an anti-Semite, he would enjoy greater respect. But the former Nixon speechwriter's hatred of the Joooos casts a pall over his otherwise more salient thoughts. You can read his column unabridged here.

- JP

Politico: Primaries a win for Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney

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Politico has published a major piece by Andy Barr on the impact of Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney on the Tuesday primaries and the implications for both if they decide to run for president in 2012. Their endorsements and support for successful GOP candidates in the critical early primary states of Iowa and South Carolina means that each will have some powerful friends in all the right places.

Both Gov. Palin and Gov. Romney were backers of big winners former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad in Iowa and state Rep. Nikki Haley in South Carolina. The endorsements are the sort of political investments which will be paid back with interest if either or both of the former governors run for president in 2012.

Mike Huckabee's endorsements, unfortunately for the former Arkansas governor, were investments in losing campaigns in the two states -- Bob Vander Plaats in Iowa and Andre Bauer in South Carolina -- both of whom finished well back in the pack of their respective races.

Barr says that the stellar showing by Branstad and Haley -— she nearly avoided the runoff in which she will square off against U.S. Congressman Gresham Barrett June 22 -- "represent a subtle but possibly important shift in the conservative grassroots" which gave Huckabee an upset Iowa victory in 2008 and a solid runner-up finish in South Carolina. Romney, who invested considerable time and treasure in Iowa to kick off his 2008 primary campaign, finished second behind Huckabee there in 2008

Those who read the political tea leaves will find it significant that Republican voters in South Carolina have no problems whatsoever having a woman heading the statewide ticket, as Haley would be the first Palmetto State governor of her gender if elected. They will also find significance in the fact that Iowa's GOP electorate chose a more mainstream conservative over a favorite of the Christian right who headed Huckabee's state campaign in 2008.

For Palin, who is already popular with conservative activists in Iowa and South Carolina, her support for the GOP nominees -- who serve as the de facto party leaders in the two states -- means she now has important allies in exactly the right places for 2012.

“I think those endorsements help Palin more than they actually help the candidates themselves,” said GOP strategist John Feehery. “She now has friends for life and she has created the perception that she has her finger on the pulse of the Republican Party, which gives her more credibility as the party spokesperson.”

Perhaps of more consequence for a potential Palin presidential bid, the former Alaska governor now has access to a network of staffers and activists with recent winning experience in winning contested statewide races.

For Palin, who is notorious for running an extremely lean operation and has never had to assemble a ground operation in those states, the assistance in marshaling staff and a field unit would prove invaluable.

[...]

Former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson said Romney’s early endorsement proved helpful to Haley, but it was Palin who helped push her across the finish line.

“Romney backed Nikki when she was at seven percent in the polls and gave her credibility,” Dawson said. “Palin then knocked it out the park along with a well-run and funded four-week effort to close the race.”

[...]

“Palin is still the hottest endorsement for Republicans in contested primaries,” said Frank Donatelli, the chairman of GOPAC, an organization designed to elect Republicans to state and local offices.

Republicans with ties to the Romney and Huckabee camps, meanwhile, were in the spin cycle, trying to downplay Gov. Palin's impact on the June 8 results. In doing so, they joined many on the left such as David Weigel and David Corn, who have been pursuing the same tactic in the Washington Post and other liberal outlets.

Though we've been critical of Politico in the past for some biased reporting, we have to give Barr credit for an impartial and balanced analysis here.

- JP

You Betcha a Palin Endorsement Matters! (Updated)

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Sarah Palin, with her characteristic humility, refused to take credit for her impact on Tuesday's primaries, told Fox News Wednesday:

"Any credit given to me is way overblown." She credited the "message" of the candidates, particularly the women she calls the "mama grizzlies."

"Perhaps an endorsement can shift just a tiny bit of momentum in some cases, and I think that's what we saw. But it certainly wasn't me as an individual," she said.

Of course Gov. Palin wasn't the only factor in the victories chalked up in California, Iowa and South Carolina, but some heavyweight political analysts commented that she is indeed a significant factor.

Democratic strategist Doug Schoen called Tuesday's results "a feather in her cap."

"Palin is a queen or kingmaker within the Republican Party," said former Republican New York Sen. Alfonse D'Amato.

[...]

In South Carolina, where the Palin factor was arguably strongest, she went for the outsider -- in a big way. State Rep. Nikki Haley climbed past three other candidates in the polls after Palin backed her at a rally in May and on Tuesday blew away the rest of the field with 49 percent of the vote. Because she did not reach the 50-percent threshold, Haley still has to face Rep. Gresham Barrett, who got 22 percent, in a runoff.

Palin's support in that race was heavy-handed. She stood firm by the candidate after a former campaign consultant claimed last month that he had an affair with the sudden frontrunner, using Facebook and robocalls to assail the consultant as a coward and dismiss the allegations as fabricated. A second affair allegation surfaced and Palin continued to support Haley.

Elsewhere, Palin endorsed candidates running against the outsider Tea Party types -- former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad in the race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Iowa and former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina in the race for the GOP Senate nomination in California.

Both were winners.

While Branstad was the favorite to win his nomination, Karl Rove, former adviser to George W. Bush and a Fox News contributor, said Palin boosted Fiorina in a race where her opponents, former Rep. Tom Campbell and Tea Party favorite Chuck DeVore, had more conservative or well-known reputations among base voters.

"She helped give conservative credentials to Fiorina," he said.

The DNC stenographers at the Washington Post, who rarely miss an opportunity to try to trivialize Sarah Palin's considerable political influence, published two pieces in an attempt to downplay her impact. One, by columnist Philip Rucker Tuesday well before the polls had even closed, and another by leftist blogger David Weigel the day after the election. Meanwhile a Susan Davis article in the Wall street Journal which purports to measure Gov. Palin's impact in the primaries reads like a Romney campaign press release.

But leave it to ABC's 'Good Morning America' to take the prize for Preposterous Political Primary Posturing:

All three network morning shows touted the good showing by a bevy of Republican women and Arkansas Democrat Blanche Lincoln in yesterday's primaries. NBC's Today and CBS's Early Show both headlined "Ladies Night," while ABC's Good Morning America's take was "Women Rule."

But ABC fill-in anchor Elizabeth Vargas suggested credit should really go to Hillary Clinton, because she "helped by running for president," paving the way for "all these other women about to possibly take office, high office, in those states."

Hillary Clinton endorsed Nikki Haley, appeared with her at a rally in South Carolina, recorded telephone ads for her and defended her against charges made by her sexist political opponents? Who knew? Somehow we also managed to miss the part of the story where Secretary Clinton risked angering elements of her political base by endorsing Carly Fiorina and Terry Branstad.

A post-election analysis by Kathy Kiely in USA Today is more even handed:

Halfway through the primary election season, anti-tax "Tea Party" activists and former Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin haven't won every battle they've joined but their record is better than the competition's.

[...]

Darrell West, a political analyst at the Brookings Institution, notes Palin has been "very helpful to candidates in GOP primaries." Still, he says, "what has not been tested is whether that extends to the general election."

On Tuesday, Palin's endorsement helped three GOP candidates: former Iowa governor Terry Branstad, who was renominated for his old job; former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, the party's choice for Senate in California, and state Rep. Nikki Haley, the leading vote-getter in South Carolina's GOP gubernatorial race.

Even left wing TIME magazine acknowledged the power of Sarah Palin endorsements in a story by Jay Newton-Small:

Sarah Palin had a pretty good Super Tuesday. Three of the four candidates she endorsed won, bringing her record in tightly contested races to 8-3 overall this midterm election year.

[...]

Palin has done particularly well picking winners in Senate and gubernatorial races, having endorsed Senate candidate Rand Paul in Kentucky, Texas Governor Rick Perry, Susana Martinez for Governor in New Mexico and on Tuesday Nikki Haley for South Carolina Governor (though Haley still faces a run off). Palin doted particularly on Haley, one of her so-called Mama Grizzlies, not only stumping for her — an effort she's made for only 7 of the 27 candidates she's backing — but also rising to her defense in robocalls when accusations of infidelity arose. "Well, whaddaya know?" Palin wrote on Facebook. "South Carolina's conservative candidate, Nikki Haley, recently zipped to the front of the line in her state's race for governor; and lo and behold, now accusations of an affair surface." (See photos of Sarah Palin.)

Except for her former running mate John McCain and a lucky few who get a personal appearance, most of Palin's picks benefit mainly from some money, a Facebook post and a few tweets. But even that tends to pack a wallop. Palin "certainly has an appeal to grassroots conservatives, which has benefited some candidates and helped put them over the finish line," says Ken Spain, communications director for the National Republican Campaign Committee, which helps elect Republicans to Congress. "Her support does tend to drive grassroots donations to individual candidates."

Update: At Conservatives 4 Palin, Ian Lazaran puts the brakes on Democrat Party Pollsters PPP's spin:

Governor Palin is more popular with Republicans nationwide than Nikki Haley and Carly Fiorina are with Republicans in their own states according to the pollster's own numbers. If Palin has stronger numbers with Republicans nationwide, then she more than likely has stronger numbers than either Fiorina or Haley has with Republicans in California and South Carolina, respectively. So is it really reasonable to argue that an endorsement from someone who is more popular with Republicans than the endorsees didn't help the endorsees with...Republicans?

- JP

The Palin Effect: Sarah Palin's appearance on 'Hannity' 6/9/2010

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Sarah Palin and host Sean Hannity discuss Tuesday night's big primary wins for GOP women, the Gulf Oil disaster and President Obama's lack of executive experience:



- JP

DVR Alert: Gov. Palin on 'Hannity' tonight, June 9, 2010

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From the "Hannity" page on Fox News' website:

Wednesday, June 9:

• Sarah Palin reacts to big primary wins for GOP women & S.C. gubernatorial candidate Nikki Haley on surviving a tough campaign

8 PM Texas Time, repeats at 11 PM on most cable systems.

- JP

The Fix: Palin and Romney could have key allies in new governors

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Aaron Blake blogs at the Washington Post's The Fix that when GOP primary voters go to the polls today to nominate candidates for governor in three of the early presidential primary states, it could have consequences for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination:

Iowa

[...]

While Romney and Palin have both endorsed Branstad, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, is behind the insurgent conservative candidate, businessman Bob Vander Plaats. Recent polling shows Vander Plaats behind by double digits, though.

Branstad is close to another potential 2012-er - Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R). But Barbour, as chairman of the Republican Governors Association has to stay neutral in primaries. Branstad also knows Tim Pawlenty, the RGA vice chairman, but the Minnesota governor has decided to stay out of contested primaries.

For his part, Branstad stayed out of the 2008 race but has shown a willingness to endorse in past Iowa caucuses. As a state representative in 1976, he picked Ronald Reagan. He endorsed Bob Dole in 1996 and Lamar Alexander and then George W. Bush in 2000.

South Carolina

The winner of the GOP primary here will be a heavy favorite in November. The question is whether state Rep. Nikki Haley can overcome affair allegations and somehow, some way, avoid a runoff. (Once considered a long shot, that prospect is becoming more and more possible by the day.)

Haley has been endorsed by both Romney and Palin.

Romney was the first one on board, endorsing her in mid-March when she was still lost in the pack with three other, more established, male candidates. As with Branstad, the two also have a connection from 2008 as Haley was a vocal supporter of Romney's disappointing fourth-place campaign in the Palmetto State.

But when it came time to defend herself against the affair accusations in recent weeks, Haley turned to Palin, running ads and robocalls featuring the former vice presidential nominee. If Haley thinks that Palin played a major role in saving her campaign, she might feel compelled to endorse her or, at least, stay neutral.

Huckabee, again, was on the other side of his two potential 2012 opponents -- endorsing Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, who is unlikely to make the runoff.

Nevada

No major potential 2012 candidate is bothering much with this state.

[...]

The lack of involvement by 2012ers also has to do with the likelihood of the state being a walk over for Romney in the presidential primary process. With its large Mormon population, Romney won it by 37 points in 2008 and is a shoo-in for 2012, assuming he runs again.

- JP

It's Primary Day in Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico

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Three states were holding primary elections Tuesday:

Alabama

According to The Montgomery Advertiser, Bradley Byrne and Tim James are considered to be the front-runners in the GOP primary race for governor. James has the endorsements of Chuck Heath Sr. and Jr.

Mississippi

Susan Davis, who writes Washington Wire at the Wall Street Journal, says state Sen. Alan Nunnelee is the GOP's top choice in the state's 1st Congressional District race, but Gov. Palin gave a last-minute shout out to Angela McGlowan via Twitter.

New Mexico

The front runner for the GOP nomination for governor, Susana Martinez, has Gov. Palin's endorsement and leads her closest opponent, former state GOP Chairman Allen Weh, by double digits in all the latest polls.

- JP

Bedard: How Sarah Palin Will Win the GOP Presidential Nomination

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Washington Whispers blogger Paul Bedard at U.S. News says the Democrats are taking Sarah Palin more seriously these days:

Not only has the respected National Journal made her their cover girl with a headline of "No Dummy," but now even Democrats are starting to worry about her influence. "Don't count her out yet," says Democratic pollster Celinda Lake.

While many see a Palin primary victor in Iowa as very doable, Lake says the 2008 GOP vice presidential candidate could also do better than expected even in Blue Hampshire, which would give her tons of momentum going into Nevada, South Carolina and Florida, all before Super Tuesday. The momentum could carry Palin on to win the nomination:

Her reasoning: New Hampshire Republicans like to vote for women. "It's one of the most pro-female Republican primaries," says Lake.

- JP