Showing posts with label straw poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label straw poll. Show all posts

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Iowa GOP Committee excludes Palin & Perry from straw poll

“…I’ve seen Sarah Palin’s people all over this state.”
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Just three weeks ahead of its big Straw Poll, The Iowa GOP State Central Committee has spoken, and the names of Sarah Palin and Rick Perry will not appear on the ballot. Well, you say, that makes sense because neither one is an announced candidate. Fair enough. We can live with that, but please explain why three declared candidates who have decided to snub the straw poll by skipping the Aug. 13 event -- Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman and Newt Gingrich -- were included by the Committee? While you consider that one, here's more on the decision from The Iowa Republican:
Those who reserved space at the Straw Poll were guaranteed to be on the ballot. Candidates who reserved space include: Congresswoman Michelle Bachman, Herman Cain, Congressman Thaddeus McCotter, Congressman Ron Paul, Governor Tim Pawlenty and Senator Rick Santorum.

In addition to those who reserved space, Speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Jon Huntsman and Governor Mitt Romney were included on the ballot. A write-in option will also be available.

The Iowa Straw Poll rules, including the ballot finalization process, were passed by the State Central Committee at the 2nd quarter meeting. The Iowa GOP extended invites to an exhaustive list of candidates and potential candidates to attend two meetings outlining the rules prior to the land allocation meeting on June 23.
Looking at the individual members of the committee and what horses they have in the race, proves some insight to the committee's thinking. Radio Iowa's O.Kay Henderson took copious notes while the sausage was being made, and reports:
Six announced candidates for 2012 have paid to play in the Straw Poll festivities and if you look at the membership on the State Central Committee, top-Straw-Poll-property-bidder Ron Paul has a heavy influence on the panel with three key campaign staffers (including his campaign manager Drew Ivers) as members of the committee and another committee member has endorsed Paul. Wes Enos, a key organizer on Michele Bachmann’s Iowa campaign, is a member of the state central committee, too. Republican National Committeewoman Kim Lehman has endorsed Rick Santorum.

[...]

Central committee member Monte Shaw made a motion to add the names of Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman, Rick Perry, Sarah Palin, and Newt Gingrich. (He listed those names in that order.) Shaw and Republican National Committeeman Steve Scheffler said it was about keeping the Iowa “relevant” in the national debate.

David Chung moved to amend Shaw’s motion to remove the names of Rick Perry and Sarah Palin. He suggested the bar ought to be “you should be a candidate” for POTUS. Another committee member suggested those who want to support those candidates — or any other — can use the “write in” line on the ballot.

[...]

Lehman suggested candidates who have “exploratory” committees or are polling well nationally should be on the ballot. Scheffler said it’s clear that Perry “probably will” run, whereas Christie has said he won’t. “If we don’t include some of these names that are thinking about it, it diminishes the relevancy of our Straw Poll,” Scheffler said. “…I’ve seen Sarah Palin’s people all over this state.”

Another committee member asked if write-in candidate tallies are reported. Strawn, the committee chairman, said yes. Heavens said she was not in favor of putting people’s names on the ballot if they’re not an announced candidate.

[...]

A vote was taken on Chung’s amendment to the Shaw amendment, to take Perry and Palin’s names off the ballot. There was a tie, 5-5 vote as those who work on campaigns abstained. Strawn exercised his chair authority to weigh in, and voted yes, so Perry and Palin are off of Shaw’s amendment/line-up.
Three Ronulans on the Committee? Fascinating. Read O.Kay's full post on the proceedings here.

- JP

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Hot Air's readers continue to prefer Palin

It's not even close
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Sarah Palin continues to dominate Patrick Ismael's straw polling of Hot Air readers, with well over 7,000 of them casting their votes this month. As these few excerpts of Patrick's extensive graphical representation of the data indicate, no other Republican even comes close:

As always, the numbers are pretty consistent month to month, with the candidate spread widening as people leave the field and votes get reassigned.

These results speak truth to Jonathan Martin's bald-faced Politico lie that Gov. Palin would "have real work to do within the ranks of conservatives to become viable." Keep drinking that Democrat/Media Complex Kool-Aid, Politico, and stay classy!

More at Hot Air's Green Room.

- JP

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Sarah Palin tops the Hot Air charts for 3rd survey in a row

No one else comes close
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Here is how she has fared against the other prospective GOP presidential candidates:
Photobucket
More from Patrick Ishmael here.

- JP

Saturday, October 9, 2010

Richmond Tea Party presidential straw poll: Christie 14%, Palin 13.5%

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New Jersey Governor Chris Christie edged out former GOP vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin by half a percentage point for first place in the Richmond, Virginia, Tea Party presidential straw poll Saturday. Christie won 14 percent of the 1,560 votes cast, with Governor Palin just behind him in second place with 13.5 percent. Texas Congressman Ron Paul finished third with 12.5 percent, followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who had 8.4 percent and U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) with 7.3 percent. Other candidates included Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Indiana Congressman Mike Pence.

Former CNN commentator Lou Dobbs keynoted the event, which organizers say attracted 2,800 registered attendees:
Repealing Obamacare was a major focus of the convention, and former Virginia Governor and U.S. Senator George Allen made an indirect stab at former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney for the Bay State’s healthcare program. Romney didn’t even place in the top five contenders in the straw poll, and “RomneyCare,” as Massachusetts’ healthcare program has been coined, may have had something to do with that.

[...]

Former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain kicked off Saturday’s events with a headlining speech – and he hinted the most of any potential 2012 GOP candidate at a run for the presidency.

After recounting his story of having survived cancer, Cain said sometimes God keeps people around for a reason they don’t know at the time.

“I might do something crazy,” Cain told the crowd of Tea Partiers in Richmond. “I might just run for president.”
Speaking of running for president, Christie has rather emphatically denied that he wants to do so, telling reporters in Iowa recently:
"I'm governor of New Jersey, I'm not going to run for national office. You have to want it more than anything else in the world, and I don't. ... You have to be ready for it, and I'm not."
Gov. Palin, on the other hand, has by her own recent comments, increased speculation that she will run in 2012.

- JP

Monday, September 20, 2010

Gov. Palin Wins Right Nation 2010 Presidential Straw Poll

- by Warner Todd Huston
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Right Nation 2010, a grassroots gathering starring Glenn Beck, was held Saturday, Sept. 18, in the western suburbs of Chicago, Illinois. A straw poll was conducted and Palin grabbed the top spot for president.

Conservatives, Republicans and Tea Party independents from throughout the Midwest chose former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as their top choice for President in 2012. Palin received 323 of the 1,693 votes cast at Right Nation 2010, the unprecedented event sponsored by the United Republican Fund and held just outside Chicago this past Saturday, September 18th.

Palin beat out New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who came in second with 274 votes, and Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who came in third with 227 votes. Herman Cain and Mitt Romney rounded out the top five with 201 and 190 votes, respectively.

Full Results:

1. Sarah Palin – 323 votes (19.1%)
2. Chris Christie – 274 votes (16.2%)
3. Newt Gingrich – 227 votes (13.4%)
4. Herman Cain – 201 votes (11.9%)
5. Mitt Romney – 190 votes (11.2%)
6. Mike Huckabee – 156 votes (9.2%)
7. Ron Paul – 78 votes (4.6%)
8. Mitch Daniels – 76 votes (4.5%)
9. Tim Pawlenty – 68 votes (4.0%)
10. Mike Pence – 45 votes (2.7%)
11. Rudy Giuliani – 33 votes (1.9%)
12. Haley Barbour – 22 votes (1.3%)

The straw poll was conducted via paper ballot and overseen by Right Nation 2010 officials. It was sponsored by Americans for Prosperity.

For more details on Right Nation, visit the website here.

-WTH

Warner Todd Huston is editor of Publius' Forum and a contributor to Texas for Sarah Palin as well as Big Government, Right Wing News, and a number of other websites.

Monday, April 12, 2010

WRS Analysis of the SRLC Straw Poll results

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Tyler Harber at Wilson Research Strategies has performed a detailed analysis of the Saturday SRLC straw poll results:
The SRLC 2012 Presidential Straw Poll demonstrates that organization matters. Both Romney and Paul were strongly prepared for the conference, buying tickets for supporters, hosting events, and printing literature, posters and stickers.

Unlike Romney, Palin spoke at the conference to a packed house. She clearly excited attendees, but Palin’s straw poll performance suffered significantly due to a lack of organization.
Here are some of his findings:
Paul’s support was largely artificial and unrepresentative

"...Paul places dead-last as attendees’ second choice indicating that the votes that Ron Paul received were almost exclusively from people his organization bused in for the event."

[...]

"The majority of Paul’s ballot support is primarily young men ages 35 or younger, as the Texas Congressman earns only token support among older attendees. This is another key data-point that show Paul’s inability to earn support from attendees that are representative of the primary electorate at-large."

Gingrich, Palin and Romney receive support from McCain voters

"... Those supporting McCain in 2008 supported Gingrich, Palin and Romney similarly."

Romney unable to carry his full support base

"Despite making a strong showing, Romney only earns the support of 54% of attendees who supported him in 2008."

[...]

Huckabee voters desert him, choosing Palin and Newt

"Huckabee only earns 20% of the votes from people supporting him 2008..."

[...]

Palin and Newt earn votes from supporters of virtually all the 2008 candidates

"Palin and Gingrich earn similar support from nearly the full spectrum of supporters of 2008 candidates, while Romney draws strength from his original supporters in addition to McCain and Giuliani voters."
Sarah Palin won the Lone Star State, capturing 30% of the votes of Texans attending the event, and she was the first choice of voters in the 55 to 64 age group.

Full crosstabs are here in a PDF document.

FiveThirtyEight has also analyzed the straw poll numbers, as we reported in our Monday Morning Sarahcuda Bites here. People sure seem to have gone to a lot of trouble to examine a poll that doesn't mean much. Oh, well...

- JP

Saturday, April 10, 2010

The SRLC Straw Poll Is No Big Deal

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Contrary to how some have reported, the SRLC straw poll is, to paraphrase Joe Biden, no big effin' deal. Consider that only half of those attending the conference even bothered to vote in the poll. Consider further that the winners of these straw polls rarely end up winning the GOP presidential nomination. Bill Frist (remember him?) won the last SRLC straw poll four years ago.

Nevertheless, some potential candidates make considerable investments in winning the poll. Evangelicals for Romney and the Ron Paul forces gave away free tickets, books and other goodies. SarahPAC spent a mere pittance by comparison, choosing only to put a bag of caribou jerky on each delegate's chair. In terms of bang for the buck, SarahPAC seems to have gotten more than its money's worth, as she finished third in the first choice vote and second in the second choice honors, finishing just 9 votes out of first place.

Much analysis of the straw poll will follow in the next few days, and then it will fade into insignificance. This far out from 2012, presidential polls don't mean much, whether they be made of straw or science. The race for the White House has barely even begun, and it's a marathon, not a sprint. The starter still has his pistol in the air. Shoot, (Oops, we said "shoot") the race doesn't even get interesting until the Iowa caucuses, and that's some 20 months away.

So just for Schlitz and grins, here are the SRLC 2010 Straw Poll Results, courtesy of Wilson Research Strategies:

1. If the primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote? Please check the box by the candidate of your choice.

Mitt Romney 24% (439 votes)
Ron Paul 24% (438 votes)
Sarah Palin 18% (330 votes)
Newt Gingrich 18% (321 votes)
Mike Huckabee 4%
Tim Pawlenty 3%
Mike Pence 3%
Rick Santorum 2%
Gary Johnson 1%

2. Who would be your second choice in the Republican Primary Election for president?

Newt Gingrich 19% (339 votes)
Sarah Palin 18% (332 votes)
Mitt Romney 13% (242 votes)
Mike Huckabee 10% (178 votes)
Mike Pence 8%
Rick Santorum 7%
Gary Johnson 6%
Tim Pawlenty 6%
Ron Paul 5%

- JP

Monday, December 14, 2009

Sarah Palin beats Mitch Daniels in Hoosier Straw Poll

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It's only a straw poll, and it's only from one county. Still, the results are leaving some eyebrows arched up in Indiana. The Hoosier Pundit reports:
From the straw poll conducted by the Harrison County GOP Sunday evening:

President (for 2012) - Sarah Palin

[...]

Sarah Palin, interestingly, beat Mitch Daniels (who was also listed as a 2012 presidential candidate) by better than two-to-one.
Indiana hearts Sarah. To say that her address to an Indiana Right to Life Banquet last April was well-received would be a major understatement. It was neither accident nor coincidence that she scheduled two of her book tour stops in the Hoosier State, one in Fort Wayne and another in Noblesville.

- JP

Friday, September 18, 2009

It might be worth joining the GOP just to be a Ted Nugent Republican

The Value Voters Summit is underway in Washington this weekend, and many political animals are looking forward to the straw poll which will be taken Saturday at the conference. While it's just a straw poll, and the 2012 presidential race is still pretty far down the campaign trail, some pundits think they will be able to read something significant in the tea leaves. One of those is Bernie Quigley of The Hill's Pundits Blog:
It should be useful in cutting through the ambiguity and denial about the various grassroots movements around the country. In a poll six months ago, Palin and Paul came in tied for second, behind Mitt Romney. Romney will come back as we get closer to 2012, but he should sink some this weekend because of his association with healthcare insurance as governor of Massachusetts.

The brooding ambiguity in the heartland has both Jeffersonian aspects (Ron Paul) and Jacksonian aspects (Sarah Palin). Texas Republican Gov. Rick Perry registers in on both of these. All three might be categorized as Ted Nugent Republicans to varying degree and manifestation.

The straw poll at the Value Voters conference should give some indication about the Nuge Factor that is rattling some traditional Republicans. Nugent was the star of the show in some of the Texas "tea party" rallies on April 15.
"Ted Nugent Republican"... Hey, we like that. We like the sound of it so much that we're considering a change in our voter registration from independent to GOP just so we can call ourselves "Ted Nugent Republicans." The "Kill It and Grill It" rocker is one of Sarah's staunchest advocates.

Quigley continues:
Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator from South Carolina, was sent almost to seizures when a purely conservative crowd started chanting "Ron Paul, Ron Paul, Ron Paul..." to the tune of "USA, USA, USA..." during one of his speeches. Paul is not a Republican, Graham shouted back at the group.
We never thought we would find ourselves in the position of defending Ron Paul, considering the unkind and incorrect things he has said about Palin supporters, but he's a heck of a lot more of a Republican than Lindsey the Liberal claims to be. 

Quigley suggests that Mitt Romney might just be the leader who can pull the various factions of the GOP together, and he cites Mitt's success in turning around the 2002 Winter Olympics as evidence. We're not seeing it. The failure of RomneyCare in Massachusetts doesn't bode well for him, and there are a significant number of conservatives in the GOP base who consider Romney too much of a changeling on the issues to trust him. And we don't see the Olympics as having much in common with a political party, either.

- JP

Sunday, June 28, 2009

Palin runs away with GOP straw poll in Kansas

At Saturday's Olathe Republican Party annual Picnic and Straw Poll, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin scored a big win in the presidential straw poll for 2012.

Gov. Palin won 36 percent of the votes cast for president. Mike Huckabee was runner-up with 26 percent. He was followed closely by Mitt Romney, who finished third with 25 percent. Bobby Jindal was a distant fourth with 9 percent, and Ron Paul finished last with 4 percent of the votes.

- JP