Scott Conroy on the futility of second guessing Sarah Palin

She has consistently exceeded her critics' expectations
*
It's really quite amusing to watch the punditocracy as they try to predict what Gov. Palin will do next, and they get it wrong most every time. At RealClearPolitics, Scott Conroy points out that those who have made assumptions that Sarahcuda is not likely to run for the White House in 2012 are ignoring several critical factors:

Sarah Palin has never done things the traditional way; she built her career on challenging political powerbrokers rather than courting them; and she has long demonstrated an uncanny self-confidence and grand ambitions for her own life that have confounded critics at every turn.

"She does not follow the typical playbook," Alaska Republican pollster Dave Dittman said. "Both the RNC and the DNC have a playbook, which is for the most part pretty predictable. And she's just writing a whole new book."

Dittman recalled that when Palin was deciding whether to run for governor in 2005, many Alaska Republicans correctly pegged her as a rising star but were unconvinced that she could win a primary contest to unseat incumbent GOP Governor Frank Murkowski. Although the odds were stacked against the relatively unknown former Mayor of Wasilla, and the party establishment voices were many and vocal in their discouragement, Palin ignored them.

"There were other people who'd announced they were going to run, and people were saying to her, ‘Why don't you run for lieutenant governor,' because that was the predictable thing-that she'd run behind John Binkley, who was a known individual," Dittman said. "And her response was, ‘Why doesn't he run for lieutenant governor?'"

Her decision to take on a veteran incumbent from her own party was emblematic of a natural aversion to Republican machinery - and following normal conventions -- that Palin has demonstrated throughout her career.

From her whistleblowing of ethical lapses committed by Alaska Republican Party chairman Randy Ruedrich before her gubernatorial run to her frequent battles with members of her own party in the Alaska state legislature and beyond, Palin has relished opportunities to take on the GOP powers-that-be. And time and again she has exceeded her critics' expectations as she has embraced seemingly every chance she has gotten to grow her star power.

[More]

Conroy takes the most prudent approach. Why not just listen to what Sarah Palin herself has said on the matter? "Actually, she gave a reply when asked on Fox News that makes a lot of sense. She's seeing how the field shapes up before making her final decision."

- JP