Politico: Primaries a win for Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney

*
Politico has published a major piece by Andy Barr on the impact of Sarah Palin and Mitt Romney on the Tuesday primaries and the implications for both if they decide to run for president in 2012. Their endorsements and support for successful GOP candidates in the critical early primary states of Iowa and South Carolina means that each will have some powerful friends in all the right places.

Both Gov. Palin and Gov. Romney were backers of big winners former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad in Iowa and state Rep. Nikki Haley in South Carolina. The endorsements are the sort of political investments which will be paid back with interest if either or both of the former governors run for president in 2012.

Mike Huckabee's endorsements, unfortunately for the former Arkansas governor, were investments in losing campaigns in the two states -- Bob Vander Plaats in Iowa and Andre Bauer in South Carolina -- both of whom finished well back in the pack of their respective races.

Barr says that the stellar showing by Branstad and Haley -— she nearly avoided the runoff in which she will square off against U.S. Congressman Gresham Barrett June 22 -- "represent a subtle but possibly important shift in the conservative grassroots" which gave Huckabee an upset Iowa victory in 2008 and a solid runner-up finish in South Carolina. Romney, who invested considerable time and treasure in Iowa to kick off his 2008 primary campaign, finished second behind Huckabee there in 2008

Those who read the political tea leaves will find it significant that Republican voters in South Carolina have no problems whatsoever having a woman heading the statewide ticket, as Haley would be the first Palmetto State governor of her gender if elected. They will also find significance in the fact that Iowa's GOP electorate chose a more mainstream conservative over a favorite of the Christian right who headed Huckabee's state campaign in 2008.

For Palin, who is already popular with conservative activists in Iowa and South Carolina, her support for the GOP nominees -- who serve as the de facto party leaders in the two states -- means she now has important allies in exactly the right places for 2012.

“I think those endorsements help Palin more than they actually help the candidates themselves,” said GOP strategist John Feehery. “She now has friends for life and she has created the perception that she has her finger on the pulse of the Republican Party, which gives her more credibility as the party spokesperson.”

Perhaps of more consequence for a potential Palin presidential bid, the former Alaska governor now has access to a network of staffers and activists with recent winning experience in winning contested statewide races.

For Palin, who is notorious for running an extremely lean operation and has never had to assemble a ground operation in those states, the assistance in marshaling staff and a field unit would prove invaluable.

[...]

Former South Carolina Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson said Romney’s early endorsement proved helpful to Haley, but it was Palin who helped push her across the finish line.

“Romney backed Nikki when she was at seven percent in the polls and gave her credibility,” Dawson said. “Palin then knocked it out the park along with a well-run and funded four-week effort to close the race.”

[...]

“Palin is still the hottest endorsement for Republicans in contested primaries,” said Frank Donatelli, the chairman of GOPAC, an organization designed to elect Republicans to state and local offices.

Republicans with ties to the Romney and Huckabee camps, meanwhile, were in the spin cycle, trying to downplay Gov. Palin's impact on the June 8 results. In doing so, they joined many on the left such as David Weigel and David Corn, who have been pursuing the same tactic in the Washington Post and other liberal outlets.

Though we've been critical of Politico in the past for some biased reporting, we have to give Barr credit for an impartial and balanced analysis here.

- JP