But the website accepts at face value a poll from Public Policy Polling which is supposed to show in a hypothetical 2012 match up, how various Republican candidates would fare against President Obama:
Sarah Palin's numbers are an interesting conundrum. She easily has the best favorability among Republicans voters, with 76% saying they have a positive opinion of her. The other three range from 60-67 with the party base. But she also has the largest percentage of GOP voters- 21%- who say they would vote for Obama if she ended up being the party nominee. So for the folks in the party who don't like her that feeling is strong enough they'd rather vote for a Democrat. It adds up to a 12 point deficit for her, 53-41. Overall the electorate has a negative opinion of Palin, 42/49.I'm a bit more skeptical about the results of this poll than the good people at GOP 12 for several reasons:
The PPP poll is at odds with results from more accurate surveys. Rasmussen, for example, found Gov. Palin's favorable to unfavorable rating to be 52/46 at the end of January. This is within the margin of error of a CNN poll which reported a 49/43 favorable/unfavorable ratio for the Alaska governor just after the election.
By more accurate polls, I mean that PPP doesn't even show up in this list of the 23 most accurate polling firms, as determined by Panagopoulos at Fordham University:
The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national pre-election polls (as reported on pollster.com).Public Policy Polling is a Democrat polling organization. Unlike Rasmussen, they have a vested interest in the outcomes of their surveys. I'm not accusing them of fudging their numbers. Just saying that they are not without their biases.
1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)
And finally, no other polling firm shows Gov. Palin with higher unfavorables than favorables, which again calls the results of this PPP poll into question. If you look strictly at PPP numbers, the 42/49 favorable to unfavorable results of this poll show a sharp improvement over what PPP reported last month, when it showed favorable/unfavorable numbers for Palin of 50/39. If you believe PPP's numbers, then you have to believe that both the governors' favorables and unfavorables increased by 8-10 points in 30 days.
And that seem far-fetched to me. Even if recent negative press had been successful in driving down her numbers, Palin's unfavorables would have increased, and her favorables would have declined, which they did not. I'll wait for the next time Rassmussen, the most accurate pollster, runs the numbers on Sarah Palin again, thanks.
Update: Videmus Omnia reports that Allahpundit at Hot Air has sipped the Kool Aid and bought into this questionable poll lock, stock and barrel. But Allah always is quick to believe the worst about Gov. Palin.
- JP
PPP had 0bama ahead by 15 percentage points just before the election. The last poll I looked at from them sampled only about 400 people, dirproptionately democrat and black.
ReplyDeleteDoes anyone really think Huckabee is the closest contender? I doubt that very much.
I just don't think that 21% of Republicans hate Gov. Palin enough to vote for Obama.
ReplyDeleteI hate to disagree with the blog post because it does have a lot of good points but I don't find the findings of the poll to be unbelievable.
ReplyDeleteFirst of all most voters don't know sarah palin only the caricature that the media made of her. This is mostly because she didn't run her own campaign and thus didn't put forward her own polices but simply repeated john mccain's. This probably is the reason for her high negatives.
The good thing about the poll is her favourability among republicans. This means that if she runs in 2012 she would have a good shot at taking the primary. Along this process she can show the electorate at large (dems and indies) what shes capable of and her favourables should improve (considerably).
All in all i think the poll is pretty good for her. Huck's likable but not electable (although i can't shake off this phony felling about him). Mitt has problems with regular republicans (plus he flip flops MORE than any other candidate) and Newt...well Newt is Newt.
Again, look at the list of the polls, ranked in their order of accuracy. Where is PPP?
ReplyDeleteOff the radar screen, that's where.
- JP